ACUS11 KWNS 091805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091805=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091805Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms could produce marginally severe hail
and locally gusty winds this afternoon across portions of southeast
Virginia into adjacent northeast North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
this afternoon in the vicinity of a surface cold front. Modest
destabilization is occurring across the region, aided by steepening
midlevel lapse rates as cooling aloft occurs with the
eastward-meandering upper low/trough. While boundary layer moisture
is modest (low 60s F dewpoints), MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg will
likely overspread the region through early evening. Sufficient shear
is in place for some updraft organization. Elongated hodographs and
cold temperatures aloft suggest that stronger updrafts could support
marginally severe hail. Furthermore, steepening low-level lapse
rates could support locally strong gusts. Overall, modest
instability and possibly lower storm coverage should temper the
overall severe risk and a watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-o7sQmoCvcdRIetMnbb_91Yjrwp6AicM65LBfVxMdT-nwYiEKBcYEOplrivf5GR3AzmYuNqWy= 8df4oS_NptwcaRsu14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 37247577 36877553 35707533 35397544 35257588 35267614
35627700 36097760 36357772 36677766 37007735 37097727
37327666 37347625 37317603 37247577=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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