ACUS11 KWNS 091742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091741=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme
southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091741Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong, damaging wind gust or an instance of marginally
severe hail may occur with some of the stronger storms over the next
few hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying
thunderstorms along the FL Panhandle and immediate surrounding
areas, with 40 dBZ echoes extending over 30 kft. These storms are
strengthening atop a deepening boundary layer, with 8 C/km 0-3 km
lapse rates contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VADs show
modestly elongated, straight hodographs and around 30 kts of
effective bulk shear, favoring multicellular storm modes. The
strongest, longest-lived multicells may produce strong wind gusts
and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail. The sparse nature
of the severe threat precludes a watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!416KmnLxl4r3gIWNaNDt_e0WuaUqJEavYlqytE1nuFR8UbSa8VVRcftY_CWQMNP93ljRqwl8C= kCHZ96yuunEcv5cbbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30688735 31288599 31308481 30948385 30468368 30158388
29818438 29638487 29578512 29738539 29958551 30168585
30298630 30348696 30688735=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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