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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0742

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 8 17:30:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 081730
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081729=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-081930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0742
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

    Areas affected...northern Florida...southeastern Georgia...far
    southern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081729Z - 081930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind threat may increase through the
    afternoon as thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze.

    DISCUSSION...The air mass across southeastern Georgia and southern
    South Carolina has warmed and destabilized through the morning and
    early afternoon, with temperatures now in the 80s. Thunderstorms
    have developed across southern South Carolina along a southward
    moving remnant outflow boundary.=20

    Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the sea breeze
    boundary through the afternoon. Deep layer shear will see some
    increase to around 30-40 kts through the afternoon, with increasing
    westerly flow aloft. A plume of steep lapse rates is in place across
    this region, owing to cooling temperature aloft. Largely straight
    hodographs and moderate to strong instability will support risk for
    large hail and damaging wind with thunderstorm development. This
    area will be monitored for possible watch issuance by mid to late
    afternoon.

    ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_c86K7ve6UlrfGDV6Tgz2KUWQY33d78HZvBBITol_p07VAr16Yzav5vkS0fQN6glz38Q6nhiA= oQsMtV9Vftroetf6QI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 31398266 31538266 32008247 32488220 32528154 32338107
    32008087 31388132 30418141 30068125 29848129 29858167
    30058214 30528262 31398266=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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