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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0739

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 8 12:58:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 081258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081258=20
    TXZ000-081430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0739
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of Deep South Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081258Z - 081430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storm development is possible
    this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Very rich low-level moisture remains in place across
    Deep South TX this morning, with MLCAPE above 2500 J/kg and minimal
    MLCINH already noted on regional 12Z soundings and recent
    mesoanalyses. With the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough
    still well to the west, coverage and intensity of morning convection
    across the region is uncertain. However, showers have recently
    developed within a zone of weak surface confluence across Cameron
    County, and some guidance depicts development of deep convection
    within this area later this morning.=20

    If deep convection can initiate and be sustained this morning,
    strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support
    supercell potential, with an attendant threat of large hail, locally
    damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. Given the conditionality of
    the morning threat, the short-term need for watch issuance is
    uncertain. Additional rounds of strong to severe storms will be
    possible later today, with eventual watch issuance possible.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4TBm84fGQLHW2_HV-BkkQ4b2z3yl0nwyY8HXUis2vPltL4h7fbs2ga_nzJaoPKVJGSjjM_z0A= eC3xu8vUMzxiUwL-js$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

    LAT...LON 25889710 25959805 26209836 26659846 27349827 27549791
    27539756 27479711 26419698 25889710=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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