ACUS11 KWNS 080622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080622=20
ARZ000-080745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080622Z - 080745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind may persist
overnight.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing
isolated hail and wind damage has persisted across AR late tonight,
with evolution into primarily a single supercell along a propagating
outflow. This cluster appears to be located in the vicinity of a
weak baroclinic zone, with slightly warmer temperatures and greater
instability noted downstream into east-central AR. Deep-layer
flow/shear is sufficient for storm organization, downstream of a
midlevel cyclone centered over southeast KS.=20

Ascent attendant to the midlevel cyclone and modestly favorable
downstream instability could support maintenance of the ongoing
small cluster through part of the overnight, with a continued threat
of localized hail and damaging gusts.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gqsOXt5PWxsHslxCwmwfkQjzgwCjr6B0oIKV5L3zK79W3k47focXcoms8PbVIu4pmZuKFt8s= IT65JP6NUIbWrVIrhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34969199 35139209 35309208 35539188 35739166 35719067
35659016 35349020 35069032 34889052 34899086 34869107
34879140 34889162 34969199=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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