ACUS11 KWNS 062158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062157=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern New York and portions of northeast
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

Valid 062157Z - 070000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
continues.

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms beginning to move out of WW 233
has shown signs of weakening over the past hour. However, residual
buoyancy and strong shear downstream may maintain some severe risk
into parts of eastern New York. Downstream watch issuance is not
currently expected, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Lightning counts have trended down within an arcing
band of storms moving out of northeast PA and into NY. Concurrently,
GOES IR imagery shows a slight warming trend in cloud-top
temperatures, also suggesting a gradual weakening trend. Currently,
the best convective environment resides across eastern portions of
WW 233 - specifically far eastern PA into northern NJ and southern
NY - where a few robust cells continue to show periodic
intensification. Although some buoyancy exists immediately
downstream of the convective band (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), the
overall weakening trend is largely expected to continue as the onset
of the early evening transition within the next 1-2 hours begins to
limit surface-based buoyancy and increase inhibition. However,
robust ascent ahead of a mid-level shortwave/vorticity maximum and
45-50 knots of deep-layer shear sampled by regional VWPs may
continue to support storm maintenance and occasional intensification
of cells and/or segments within the line. Given the aforementioned thermodynamic challenges, this is not anticipated to be a widespread
threat, but localized areas of damaging gusts appear possible
through 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DWLbKMjDtrnVKKnc5ELJfp3Nl32-28c1uFUdW7wvn0u1G03fqR1cvsjEeS6NSxfGrM2eKcvj= TkuZR6I41CrLmnm5oA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 40897539 41387532 41837535 42237543 42497559 42637581
42767599 42967609 43187612 43487601 43707577 43847545
43867514 43877477 43817462 43647434 43317381 42977360
42717346 42297339 41147356 40937367 40697390 40637412
40607455 40677517 40897539=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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