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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0724

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 6 21:33:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062132=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-062300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0724
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062132Z - 062300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase across parts
    of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi over then next
    few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and damaging winds,
    though the tornado risk could increase with time.

    DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments are
    evolving in the warm-advection wing extending from eastern LA into
    southwestern MS. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per HDC VWP data) and middle/upper 60s dewpoints spreading gradually northward along/south
    of the warm front will continue to support this activity as it
    continues spreading east-northeastward over the next few hours.
    While some of these storms will remain elevated north of the warm
    front, posing mainly a risk of large hail, any storms that can
    mature along/south of the surface front will be capable of producing
    damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado -- given
    ample low-level buoyancy and SRH. Convective trends are being
    monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-PI28pmJpF_X0lBeczEpomqd7WKCvPCW_qklTcFSqL-JJa73cgCAtncvBrM_H6PI2YKV_nVsg= Ei00PWj04z3Pn8VjEg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30729084 31489171 32469178 32819158 32959114 32909069
    32509000 31268926 30688954 30479016 30729084=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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