ACUS11 KWNS 062049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062048=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-062215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas to much of Louisiana.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...

Valid 062048Z - 062215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234 continues.

SUMMARY...Continued threat for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and
isolated hail.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed line of storms extends from
east-central Texas to northwest Louisiana. Sporadic wind damage and
at least one tornado has been reported thus far within the line. A
more favorable orientation of the line has occurred across northeast Texas/northwest Louisiana where a bowing segment is apparent. In
addition, a tornado with a TDS was recently observed southwest of
the SHV radar where a leading supercell interacted with this line.
Limited surface base instability amid mid 60s dewpoints and
preceding rainfall should keep the tornado threat somewhat limited,
but enough surface based or near surface based instability is
present for some tornado threat near the apex of this bow,
particularly where any cell interactions occur. Expect the greatest
severe wind threat near this bowing segment of the line across
northern Louisiana this afternoon and into the early evening.
Farther south, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
possible, particularly with any embedded supercells within the line.

A conditional greater tornado threat exists with any supercells
which can develop along/south of the warm front in Louisiana where
STP values are around 2 to 3. STP values may increase this evening
as low-level shear strengthens. Convection strengthening across
southeast Texas could be the beginning of this potential threat. If
any of these supercells can remain discrete with sufficient
longevity to mature, they will pose a strong tornado threat this afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dZ0ttS_oz83Hp4zEp2FKVZz0vOZ21GdZJVS3xY7mDyBCv2jhyeZB-rTUXcQoH3ZBDSIgvmTa= vS2LJ5GcxPx1tKlNc0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 32599438 32889379 32969282 32829236 32319202 31539204
30579252 30199349 29979421 29549570 29519653 29559682
29779721 30239722 30849622 31759508 32599438=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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