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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0722

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 6 20:37:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062037=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-062200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0722
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northwestern
    New Jersey and southern New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

    Valid 062037Z - 062200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional instances of damaging gusts and perhaps hail
    remain possible with the stronger storms. A tornado may still occur
    with storms ahead of a pre-frontal boundary.

    DISCUSSION...A primary arching band of strong thunderstorms persists
    ahead of a pseudo-dryline pre-frontal boundary across far eastern
    PA, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s F amid 10 degree F
    dewpoint decreases as the boundary passes. These pre-frontal storms
    have been the most organized so far, with multiple instances of
    low-level rotation detected and an apparent tornado reported in the
    past hour. The best chance for an additional tornado remains with
    these storms, along the PA/NJ/NY borders, before the ongoing storms
    move into a more stable airmass. Otherwise, strong wind gusts and
    perhaps hail may develop with the stronger storms to the west of the pre-frontal boundary.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9INUTFxHy4fPqMnR0SN7SScf5MGn7x7ut87Nhk30Z0xPLuCQ7Pg6kkoFzQK2YDbeNWd9qomES= K6keXpT5Lh7XPy0pw8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40267688 41177674 42567623 42787535 42797500 42027455
    41117454 40727455 40397480 40187520 40117594 40267688=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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