ACUS11 KWNS 061916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061915=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-062045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061915Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms may develop this afternoon, posing a risk
for a severe gust, instance of hail, or a landspout tornado. The
severe threat appears too isolated and/or localized to warrant a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to deepen beneath and
immediately ahead of an upper low that is slowly drifting eastward
across the southern Rockies. A plume of colder mid-level
temperatures accompanying this upper low is advecting eastward,
resulting in a steep mid-level lapse rate plume overspreading a
destabilizing airmass. To the west of a remnant
northwest-to-southeast oriented baroclinic boundary draped across
the TX Panhandle, surface temperatures are rising into the 60s F
amid upper 40s F dewpoints, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE
given the aforementioned colder temperatures aloft. Given scant
buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, the overall severe threat
should remain isolated, hence no WW issuance planned. However, a
severe gust or instance of hail may accompany one of the stronger
storms that manages to materialize. Furthermore, deep-layer vertical
oriented vorticity (including at low levels) does overlap with well
over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE in far eastern NM, where a landspout could
form if a robust updraft can develop and take advantage of this
environment.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60Cy4xhHGqtK2_d7rlhyCM42hJ_Jk0GJ-MnrkCQ6zMxq7L98GvmMP4htCZC-HSqo8FjDGWefW= JucKKz490VzrO6EnBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33100493 33750466 34430446 35040419 35250389 35390333
35110265 34430199 33350123 32880158 32690232 32720345
32720415 33100493=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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