ACUS11 KWNS 061819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061819=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...East Texas and much of central Louisiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 061819Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon for
portions of East Texas and much of central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across central Texas.
Embedded supercells within this line have shown persistent
circulation with at least one confirmed tornado thus far. East of
this line, the boundary layer continues to destabilize as a warm
front lifts north. This will support a continued threat through the
afternoon and into the evening along and south of the warm front.
Favorable low-level shear is present ahead of this line across East
Texas where SPC mesoanalysis shows a peak STP of 3 to 4. Expect this environment to continue to expand north and east ahead of this line
with a persistent threat for primarily severe wind gusts and
tornadoes.=20

The higher end tornado threat hinges primarily on whether supercells
can develop ahead of the ongoing linear activity. If this occurs, a
greater strong tornado threat would exist this afternoon/evening.
However, it is unclear whether this will occur. Storm development
seems closely tied to the warm front/cold front and temperatures
along the warm front across east Texas and west-central Louisiana
are only in the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures have developed
farther south across southeast Texas, but without a focused boundary
for development, new development within this environment may be
challenging.=20

Nonetheless, even if the more discrete supercell threat does not
materialize, confidence is high for a line of storms to move across
East Texas and central Louisiana within a moderately unstable and
strongly sheared environment. This will necessitate a tornado watch
shortly. In addition, based on the current warm front location and
expected northward movement, a few of the southern counties within
severe thunderstorm watch 232 may also need to be replaced by a
tornado watch with the issuance of this downstream watch.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kx5BgBgMqfcIwVItFloDuEI2200am-mpcJibIIfIiXCVhoPv9M-fRCPbzyPW-PQPrQcFZFeV= amSlcVR4PyblNN54yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30339448 30749464 31829471 32099387 32389302 32229220
31799210 31379207 30769209 30449227 30299380 30339448=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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