1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0715

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 6 15:52:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 061550
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061550=20
    TXZ000-061715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0715
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

    Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 231...

    Valid 061550Z - 061715Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into
    the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with
    low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has
    limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have become
    apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A
    mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell
    County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front
    with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional
    development has already started to the southwest with some hints of
    additional development farther east along the front. By later this
    afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm
    front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of
    which could be strong).

    The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was
    moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some
    heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in
    low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates.
    Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat
    across east-central Texas.

    ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XozhwoNqC8xASOTy2dhP5pdZugX48OpihmrwC_kogyQijqj1GXbuG95jctw0ByXLyMvtAh59= A0UCZ7ud1n2YQh0DIM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504
    29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859
    30969806=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)