ACUS11 KWNS 061417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061417=20
TXZ000-061515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...north-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

Valid 061417Z - 061515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.

SUMMARY...A downstream/replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be
needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move east across north
Texas. This line appears mostly elevated with occasional wind
signatures, but no substantial measured wind gusts. Ahead of this
line, elevated storms have started to develop into supercells.
Expect this elevated activity to increase through the morning as a
40-45 knot low-level jet intensifies across northeast Texas with
~1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Some supercell structures will be possible given
the strong wind profile. Large hail will be the primary threat from
this activity.=20

A replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by 15Z across north-central Texas with additional areas east of watch 230 also
needed.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_v81VfFBL9DY8RnxEHJN6PtxdF-2quqOlmE8c-ZXIw-d_UZvleiW-QMY2sLiGvPfbB6v5qjf1= jJddW3OxQDMpyPydmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31429837 32309818 32869814 33309789 33479698 33289584
32729544 31859548 31539597 31499709 31499781 31429837=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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