ACUS11 KWNS 060128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060127=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 227...

Valid 060127Z - 060330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for the development of at least a couple of
intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes is
likely to increase through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. A new tornado watch
will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Although attempts at deep convective development
persist along the dryline, and east of the dryline to the northwest
of Del Rio, relatively warm/dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere has
still contributed to at least some suppression. The strong westerly
shear, and continued westward retreat of the dryline toward the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, also have likely inhibited
development.

However, it does appear that thunderstorm initiation may be
increasingly underway near the intersection of the dryline and
stalled surface front near Wink TX. And potential for intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to increase considerably further
across the Pecos Valley toward the Del Rio TX vicinity through mid
to late evening. Low-level moisture characterized by lower to mid
60s surface dew points is advecting along/south of the Edwards
Plateau, toward the Pecos Valley, as a short wave trough pivots
northeastward toward the region.

As mid-level height falls spread across the region coincident with
the low-level moistening and destabilization, which may included
CAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg, the development of at least a
couple of intense supercells appears increasingly likely through
03-06Z.

..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8sg96nq4XDFgJObWGeR25_PK3icA1LUOiafxJMuOgGP1_jaxYpsr65yINxbtoaT-Xn6hUe2ou= xkkhKYc591g3zeoQUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32450356 31700124 31160054 29930102 30010221 30510291
31510351 32450356=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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