ACUS11 KWNS 060012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060011=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the central
Appalachians

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228...

Valid 060011Z - 060215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 228
continues.

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe
hail/wind risk through the mid-evening hours across northern
Virginia and Maryland into southwest Pennsylvania. Downstream watch
issuance is not likely due to the expectation of a gradually waning thermodynamic environment.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of thunderstorms has begun to develop
from southwest PA into northern VA, and is largely being driven by
strong ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave/vorticity
maximum (evident in water-vapor imagery). Downstream from this band,
the 00 UTC PBZ sounding sampled a weakly capped environment (MLCIN
of around -50 J/kg) and some residual buoyancy. Recent RAP
mesoanalysis estimates align well with these observations and show a
narrow warm sector extending from southwest PA into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic where strong/severe thunderstorm clusters continue. A
strongly sheared kinematic environment was also noted with weak
easterly low-level flow beneath 30-40 knot southeasterly mid-level
flow supporting an elongated hodograph. The combination of favorable
ascent and strong shear may compensate for the modest thermodynamic
environment and support a few organized cells capable of severe hail
(most likely between 1.0 to 1.5 inches) and damaging gusts for the
next few hours. With time, the onset of nocturnal cooling should
steadily inhibit surface-based convection and begin reducing the
overall severe threat. As such, downstream watch issuance from 228
is not anticipated.

..Moore.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BThp8ixR-ZIl-QT7JCsDyvVAT1hNsk2044Z0nU7andr0UPvoGgncNBJ4gegO2h9l74geYMru= zc7q06eY6GAju2O568$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39817715 39557704 39297703 39057707 38827724 38707759
38817794 39337897 39878015 40078069 40368076 40698058
40958014 41047963 40957903 40687841 40387781 40037735
39817715=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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