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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0699

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 5 20:12:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 052011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052011=20
    FLZ000-052215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0699
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0311 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

    Areas affected...east-central and southeast FL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

    Valid 052011Z - 052215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail and localized severe
    gusts should persist through early to mid evening across southeast
    and east-central Florida.

    DISCUSSION...Several cells across southeast FL have somewhat
    weakened after earlier producing large hail reported up to ping-pong
    ball size. This activity may still produce marginal hail/wind as
    storms oscillate in the near-term. Large-scale convective outflow
    has surged south and west, potentially serving as a focus for storm
    development in the interior peninsula into early evening.=20

    Farther north, the Melbourne VWP has consistently sampled around
    40-45 kt 0-6 km shear. Although thunderstorm development has been
    subdued to an extent, additional storms may yet form along the
    Atlantic sea breeze to the quasi-stationary front. Ample buoyancy
    will favor isolated large hail and localized severe gusts.

    ..Grams.. 05/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6n33weoPBh4xGxQB63R6CP97Z3lX9Zi4gXHj0y5UdY6hMEWij2NidKh6CghvlpggswUyuGQxi= oJiC4JmolhbpzLm9Ww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 28838091 27758041 26858008 26008011 25618026 25468071
    25458099 26458127 26738137 27488111 27968108 28328119
    28388156 28518187 28828141 28838091=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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