1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0697

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 5 19:11:05 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 051910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051910=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-052115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0697
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

    Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

    Valid 051910Z - 052115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist
    across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast
    across southeast Virginia through early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across
    central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly
    deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient
    supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater
    northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort
    max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly
    unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
    J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat
    through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak
    severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far.

    ..Grams.. 05/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PBeVZYX1wnZl9ck3JJUvI4ehmZQiC3hT4jO0cUNJRe-_n37VaQNGntQyyXLi0sd0tV5zAP8M= M8d46rcB_M9M9yg6ww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662
    37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781
    34747818 35047835 35777850=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)