ACUS11 KWNS 051703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051702=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of WV...eastern OH...and western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051702Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon from parts of West Virginia across the Upper
Ohio Valley towards Lake Erie. Monitoring for a potential severe
thunderstorm watch across parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have gradually developed across
far southern WV, within the left-exit of a mid-level jetlet curling
north, east of the southern Appalachians. Scattered showers are also
prevalent from northern VA into western PA beneath a separate
upper-level jetlet. Closer to the cold-core of the OH Valley
mid-level low, convective temperatures have been breached across the
Upper OH Valley. This suggests ongoing cells in southern WV should intensify/increase in coverage by mid-afternoon as they spread north-northwestward, yielding a corridor of severe hail/damaging
wind potential. Farther north, greater cloud coverage/ongoing
showers may result in a more marginal/sporadic hail/wind threat.

..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XS6hHpgTHHeAzYCeB26_ZxhbbASZTyqOU_MSewmS0XGOp0mzTAuycFRb8V7X6CIgVfou9THf= dZqBW61rrxWnHHmBO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41897993 41427906 40647907 40197947 39658020 38008111
37758192 38028226 39908255 40718230 41868070 41897993=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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