ACUS11 KWNS 051346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051346=20
TXZ000-051545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of south-central to southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051346Z - 051545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible this morning with
elevated storms moving northeast from the San Antonio vicinity.
Overall coverage/intensity will probably remain insufficient for
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed along a northwest/southeast-oriented corridor to the south-southeast of San
Antonio. This activity initially pulsed up and then weakened, but
could oscillate back upward this morning. Guidance consensus
indicates this activity has formed along the leading edge of
strengthening 700-mb southwesterlies, which will move northeastward
through midday. 12Z Del Rio and Corpus Christi soundings sampled
rich low-level moisture with steepened lapse rates above 650 mb.
With some veering but mainly increasing speed shear with height,
transient mid-level rotation will remain possible. Overall scenario
could support sporadic severe hail cores into midday, but coverage
should remain isolated.

..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6mUfgoaaFbdFyh-S1vk0wBYvcyYttH12akQh4oghNKY_euqwBJn44a3ppShtw-QLSBP1_ZaPy= qyYUOX6xI9KvOFFzrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29059845 29599874 30159848 30669739 30769676 30639621
30319576 29809556 29279555 28969618 28629707 28679774
29059845=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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