ACUS11 KWNS 042038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042038=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 042038Z - 042215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to intensify across southeast New
Mexico into parts of far west Texas through early evening. Hail is
the primary hazard, likely reaching golf to tennis ball size.
Isolated severe gusts to 70 mph and a brief tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Overall forecast remains as advertised. Storm
intensification has been gradual, but largely focused near the
Sacramento Mountains in Otero and Lincoln counties, and separately
over Eddy and Chaves, spreading into Lea within NM. These cells and
others that should develop off the higher terrain of the northern
Trans-Pecos in TX will likely intensify during the next few hours. A
ribbon of surface dew points near 50 F have held along the Pecos
Valley, supporting a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. With
onset of strengthening low-level flow around 22Z, supercell
coverage/intensity should peak into early evening. Thereafter, drier
low-level air over the TX South Plains and eastern Permian Basin
should result in increased ingest of MLCIN deeper into the evening.

..Grams.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-TZbcJpeEVB99YqlTjSAr3qv-C33ykzyb8nzWmhlBCFzivq50kSwHfKN5gl2VUEm4JOrgM8-= 4-Dfv7WIsao_TPj0yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32750583 33150567 33560516 33760462 33830415 33710359
33520318 33150295 32680270 32110266 31580281 31310350
31290415 31800527 32370578 32750583=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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