ACUS11 KWNS 041738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041737=20
FLZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041737Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may accompany the stronger,
longer lasting storms, with strong wind gusts and hail being the
main threats. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters/possible transient
supercells have developed across the southern FL Peninsula amid a
destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are well into the 80s F,
with surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F, contributing to over 1500
J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates. A 60+ kt 300 mb
wind maximum is approaching the southern FL Peninsula, which will
contribute to elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. The resulting
deep-layer speed shear (perhaps exceeding 40 kts) should support the
production of both hail and strong wind gusts in the longer lived,
more organized storms, especially if a sustained supercell can
materialize. A tornado also cannot be completely ruled out with any
storms interacting with outflow or sea-breeze boundaries. Overall
though, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance
is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kiflrPdE_dkliQ64Qxgbd-O6pKuLIiAPWgXOJXAxVM1X1xxTDn5IckFHiNABXGELxR7jdfhQ= SYzv4K_NR4fgpV_BWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 25378052 25908096 26298122 26858127 27118084 27168032
27018007 26268000 25898002 25528021 25308032 25378052=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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