ACUS11 KWNS 040015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040014=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-040215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

Valid 040014Z - 040215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and perhaps brief
embedded circulations continues across eastern Alabama and northern
Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery show
gradually warming cloud-top temperatures associated with an
organized squall line across north-central GA. This weakening trend
is likely associated with the recent onset of the early-evening
transition with temperatures beginning to fall into the mid 60s.
Continued nocturnal cooling/stabilization should continue the
weakening trend, though recent surface observations and high-res
guidance suggests that damaging winds (generally 35-55 mph) may
persist for the next couple of hours given the adequately sheared
and buoyant environment.=20

Further south across eastern AL into far western GA, warmer
temperatures have allowed for continued storm development ahead of
the line. The ingestion of the new cells appears to be locally
reinforcing the cold pool as small-scale outflow surges are noted in
KMXX and KFFC velocity data, and a stronger mid-level wind surge is
observable from KBMX. These trends suggest that eastern AL into far
western GA may see the best potential for a severe gust over the
next 1-2 hours. Additionally, short-lived embedded circulation
continue to be noted within the past hour, and this potential should
persist given the aforementioned outflow surges within an adequately
sheared environment. Heading deeper into the evening hours, the
overall severe threat should begin to wane as nocturnal
stabilization continues to hinder surface-based convection.

..Moore.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PlRmnS8_p_1Q197AU-T5i2lA0lLjNX9komxsw18qwuORWfkzhwC8JdAEMHHKl-9HZZO_S9ZA= 6EM7vpEASUg0Ub6u4U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32128641 32638566 32998523 33228504 33688454 34258414
34518381 34568362 34488342 34268326 33978327 33668344
33238371 32928392 32708412 32488438 32258468 32048511
31908550 31908575 31978612 32008632 32128641=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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