ACUS11 KWNS 032006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032006=20
TXZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos in southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032006Z - 032230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two, capable of large hail, may
develop this afternoon. If storms form and intensify, the severe
threat should still be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across the Trans-Pecos
region in southwest TX as warming surface temperatures beneath 7
C/km mid-level lapse rates contributes to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite
mid-level ridging, the overspreading of a 60-80 kt 300 mb jet stream
is resulting in 40+ kts of 0-6 km speed shear (per latest RAP
forecast soundings and mesoanalysis). This vertical shear profile,
along with the aforementioned buoyancy, is adequate in supporting
supercell storm modes capable of producing large hail with any
updrafts that can mature and sustain themselves. Given modest
instability and ascent, storm development should remain quite
isolated, along with any severe threat that manages to materialize.
Given the anticipated isolated severe threat, a WW issuance is
unlikely.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_95J3XBUwpPWagy2A_0t4CLu7htlkgrB9IoadAATqwURHaFDnUnpnB5V3gxVjxHGQd9YTvXvn= UVNzhSBPS8weSuuCvY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31010569 31230513 31170422 31050308 30670203 30090164
29750173 29710228 29650256 29350275 28990303 28940329
29110392 29490440 29750463 30140483 30460500 30600517
31010569=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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