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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0665

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 3 16:16:13 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 031615
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031614=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0665
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 031614Z - 031815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected through the
    afternoon across a confined corridor of the Northeast and southern
    New England. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and hail is
    anticipated. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears likely.

    DISCUSSION...Bulk of morning guidance, outside of the HRRR and
    parent RAP, suggest a favorable corridor of at least isolated severe
    storms should develop from the PA/NJ/NY border northeastward across
    parts of interior southern New England. Robust boundary-layer
    heating is underway ahead of the minor lobe of ascent over eastern
    PA and south of the quasi-stationary front. The differential heating
    across the front will aid in strengthening the baroclinic zone.
    While mid-level lapse rates are weak and will temper overall storm
    intensity, nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with
    moderate speed shear will foster occasional updraft rotation. A mix
    of cells and small clusters should support both a severe hail/wind
    threat in a confined corridor through the afternoon.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-N2nc9z9chcPpSj0rGgJ5-V3dmzufVrq3_Z7lBmSHABD7Aia-avaXBPLcyBPr5gXIGPFIyz-l= 1s-oEyt0u9UA9OBbJ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41187498 42107438 42727332 43327208 43437130 43187092
    42597125 41777276 41177389 40647457 40437498 40537542
    41187498=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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