ACUS11 KWNS 030349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030348=20
TXZ000-030545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...

Valid 030348Z - 030545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
continues.

SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorms posing a continuing risk for large
hail and localized strong to severe wind gusts may remained confined
near and to the west of the Rio Grande River. However, storms now
forming east-southeast of Cotulla may impact the Corpus Christi
vicinity by Midnight-1 AM CDT, with at least some risk for severe
hail and wind. It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will
be needed for the Brownsville area, but trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...The shallow leading edge of the slowly southward
advancing cold front now appears south of Cotulla and Victoria, with
some continuing increase in thunderstorm development near the
Cotulla vicinity. A more intense, discrete storm which developed
near the front to the west of the Rio Grande has maintained a
propagation to the right of the deep-layer mean flow/shear, near the
river, in the wake of the consolidated remnants of a preceding pair
of supercells that initiated off the higher terrain to the north-northwest.=20=20

Stronger renewed thunderstorm development above the cold pool
associated with this lead activity is maintaining a propagation to
the west of the the river, but peak intensities have weakened some,
apparently in response to the onset of boundary layer cooling
beneath warm elevated mixed layer air. As southward suppression of
the elevated mixed-layer air continues near/north of the surface
front, it is possible that the frontal thunderstorm development may
persist through the remainder of Deep South Texas by 06-9Z, perhaps
accompanied by some continuing risk for severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 05/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!93b-LI-AclxgyzHqJMNjlgqtOyQQVIHy8SCiVhtm4TBm2rh1UVW4Z14JijuTYFKeEvXqM54xT= SEceGij9dRdoEAX4ds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 28490065 28750000 28219838 28129684 27079671 26299705
26009755 25929856 26289979 26910094 28490065=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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