ACUS11 KWNS 022023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022022=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-INZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...eastern KY/TN and far southwest OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...

Valid 022022Z - 022215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
continues.

SUMMARY...A mixed threat of isolated severe hail and damaging gusts
should persist through early evening with scattered to broken
thunderstorms from the central Ohio Valley to the Cumberland
Plateau.

DISCUSSION...A fairly messy convective evolution persists, which has
likely mitigated a more widespread damaging wind threat so far this
afternoon. The northern end of the convective swath across KY has
broken up into more cellular elements, with the far northern portion
that moved through the Louisville area producing damaging winds.
Meanwhile farther south in TN, the convective line has failed to
appreciably organize. This may be related to the weak lower-level
flow sampled in area VWP data. Primary severe threat may remain from
sporadic, marginally severe hail. Any one of these stronger cores
might aid in localized damaging wind swaths downstream, but
confidence is low in if/where a more concentrated threat will occur.

..Grams.. 05/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Bhs0iGhCbk1PCcIooWCqW1nnO5GX3h7iejPrzQEEeOzwoSE-_xDEvj3zFOBU4uh7Homw0PLR= 0IzC-5UjXrGD5Y2DCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36978290 35858348 35448386 35338464 35618529 36568516
37128500 37708525 38268559 38618550 39018483 39178417
39018352 38908331 38458292 36978290=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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