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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0648

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 16:30:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021629=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0648
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1129 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the TN Valley and Mid-South

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...

    Valid 021629Z - 021800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of damaging winds and severe hail are
    expected through the afternoon. A corridor of greater severe wind
    and brief tornado potential is apparent across northern Mississippi
    into far southwest Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters along with an emerging linear
    segment are ongoing from the Mid-South across the TN Valley. Primary
    large hail threat is with the leading convection and developing
    cells to its south. Primary damaging wind threat will likely evolve
    in two regimes. In the near-term, across northern MS into far
    southwest TN where a north/south-oriented line segment progresses
    across the trailing outflow from the leading convection. This may
    also support potential for a tornado or two with enhanced low-level
    SRH along the outflow. Downstream in northern AL through middle TN
    and southern KY, damaging wind coverage should increase into late
    afternoon as greater amalgamation of convection occurs.

    ..Grams.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6og1Jp2dpQuyz_78jzaksM-YmhgTaMLdQ8DWIOfOztcDBo0xnkriNofGJDviNeAev8G8Q5PUz= 9cUGVyqJEu0mp2cJDQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586
    34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040
    35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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