1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 14:40:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021439
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021439=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-021645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0939 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 021439Z - 021645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...An increasing severe-thunderstorm threat is expected into
    the afternoon as storms develop/intensify over eastern Arkansas and
    northern Louisiana across central to northern Mississippi. Damaging
    winds should be the main hazard.

    DISCUSSION...An MCV over central AR will likely drive primary severe-thunderstorm potential across a portion of the Lower MS
    Valley and Mid-South into the afternoon. Large-scale convective
    outflow arcs from this MCV across southeast AR and northwest LA,
    where incipient storm development is underway. With moderate
    boundary-layer heating of the richly moist air mass ahead of this
    outflow, moderately large buoyancy is expected. Primary mid-level
    flow enhancement attendant to the MCV may remain confined north of
    convective outflows, it will still be sufficient for organized clustering/potential bowing structures along the northern end of the surface-based instability plume. Damaging winds are likely to be the
    primary overall hazard in this setup.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mWVXZ6wvhjFMhHgrRaTJilzIs-u6It5eYefqa3dUfgfxUiZae9f551KkYhDs-8-GJayDU9YT= OctdF6VtWl1ba64bsM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34949219 35319151 35509026 35378940 35108852 34398827
    33608829 33148845 32618913 32259017 32179156 32199262
    32369355 33309268 34949219=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)