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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 1 23:19:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 012319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012319=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

    Areas affected...2Northeast Arkansas into the lower OH River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012319Z - 020115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe hail
    and damaging wind threat through the early evening hours. Watch
    issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a
    mid-level trough have been more intense and persistent than
    initially anticipated based on an environmental analysis. Over the
    past 1-2 hours, these thunderstorms have intensified within a subtle theta-e/buoyancy ridge extending from northeast AR into the lower OH
    River Valley with a 1.75 inch hail report noted over the past hour.
    Deep-layer wind shear within the base of the mid-level trough axis
    remains fairly marginal based on regional VWP observations (20-25
    knots), however, the combination of sufficient deep-layer shear and
    augmented buoyancy have been adequate to promote thunderstorms with weak/transient mid-level mesocyclones in the stronger cells. Storms
    may continue to intensify to severe levels over the next 1-2 hours
    as they traverse the buoyancy ridge and prior to the onset of
    nocturnal cooling after 01 UTC. The stronger cells may be capable of
    1-1.75 inch hail and damaging gusts, though the overall coverage and
    duration of the threat should remain sufficiently limited to
    preclude watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-xcHaWKofb-SyqipyNIDb0SDv0oXkCqGjD4W2DFVkTSoVfBpz7BknIZseV8qayc3rzVvBEdkh= AfHl9JFLPaUBcb0lE8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36839132 37329103 37969031 38688890 38878817 38758773
    38498738 38218723 37978721 37618737 37418756 36088983
    35699050 35659087 35679114 35829148 36049158 36289161
    36839132=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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