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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0633

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 1 19:04:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 011903
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011903=20
    TXZ000-012100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0203 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011903Z - 012100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be possible with widely
    scattered supercells this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts
    of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. Timing and where the
    greatest concentration of storms will be remains uncertain. Trends
    will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has spread northward into much of
    central and eastern Texas. Cumulus towers have been increasing along
    an outflow boundary in central Texas and along a moisture
    gradient/pseudo dryline within the Edwards Plateau as temperatures
    have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Mid-level ascent will be weak,
    but strong surface heating and minimal MLCIN should allow a few
    widely scattered supercells to develop. The most organized storms
    are more likely in central Texas where effective shear will be
    greater. Storm coverage will likely be higher near the outflow
    boundary as the moisture gradient is less convergent. Storms this
    afternoon will be capable of large to very-large hail and severe
    gusts. A watch is possible for portions of these regions. The
    uncertainty will be the timing and placement of possible watches.
    Trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CUz0K9mOpT9IlR3Dx1OZn0NGy7bgQdCI9mhxTD0JHJUEKQBtIyrw_o9dGnDgSkf93Dxu8iWU= qo_IMZQQYyg-wQZwrw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078
    30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746
    31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829
    30049901=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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