ACUS11 KWNS 011612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011612=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-011815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...OH...western PA...eastern KY...northern WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 011612Z - 011815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Lower-topped convection along a confluence axis should
intensify through the afternoon, increasing the risk for scattered
damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail. With moderate
uncertainty on timing and spatial extent, a severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed, centered on the Upper Ohio Valley.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased along a generally north/south-oriented confluence axis along the IN/OH border into
central KY. 30-35 kt measured gusts have been observed thus far,
with much of the line remaining low-topped. Modified 12Z ILN
sounding along with short-term forecast soundings indicate the
downstream airmass is supporting weak buoyancy as temperatures have
warmed to 75-80 F. Further warming is expected to yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE in the next hour or two. These soundings along with
regional VWP data suggest that much of the wind shear is
concentrated in the low-levels with an ill-defined mid/upper
hodograph amid a unidirectional southwesterly profile. This suggests
that supercells should struggle to be maintained beyond
weak/transient structures. Morning CAM guidance also offers a
variety of potential outcomes this afternoon, but the more preferred
guidance depicts scattered multicell clustering increasing across OH
into eastern KY. Small to marginally severe hail cores should
enhance downdraft potential for scattered damaging winds.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Xgwt7-Bsb6ceCwbNbyD2USZghsFj4hVCXxZNNYZgyACK0_ppb1GQ_1mquBAumzdeDnLWxrwF= 54FFkJjCX4HrOTGY08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39818418 40008411 40618385 40858310 41138217 41328095
41348052 41087992 40627967 40068000 39618046 39428119
38838244 37838377 37928519 39818418=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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