• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0629

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 1 02:35:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 010233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010233=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0629
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-South

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...

    Valid 010233Z - 010330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk of locally damaging wind gusts persists with an MCS
    tracking eastward across the Mid-South.

    DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS continues tracking eastward
    across the Mid-South at around 30-40 kt. Despite some weakening of
    this system, the well-established cold pool and around 40 kt of 0-6
    km shear (per NQA VWP) is supporting embedded severe wind gusts
    (recent measured gusts of 55-65 mph in northwest MS). As the MCS
    continues eastward amid increasing nocturnal inhibition, continued
    weakening is expected. Therefore, a downstream watch is not
    currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RIFErjKVOF-blTF2lA6sUAIZf0-dFXBMkoS0hyxNZ02ts3ATHm7v4GSdcgkIvfh6jv4IetLG= 47WI26k0NrFxOvbyE4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33409021 33259061 33389089 33969062 35079028 35649031
    36109046 36269031 36308995 36128960 35558957 34498968
    33918987 33409021=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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