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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0625

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 23:29:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 302329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302328=20
    TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-010100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0625
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Arkansas into far western
    Tennessee and northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...

    Valid 302328Z - 010100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.

    SUMMARY...An eastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a risk of
    severe wind gusts and perhaps an embedded mesovortex tornado or two
    into this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a
    possible downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across
    central AR at around 30 kt. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
    oriented oblique to the gust front, warm/moist inflow, and a
    gradually strengthening low-level jet, this MCS should maintain its
    current intensity with eastward extent across the remainder of AR
    and perhaps into far western TN and northwestern MS. The primary
    concern will be severe wind gusts (especially with any bowing
    segments), though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two cannot be
    ruled out (aided by around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- especially in
    the near-term. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
    downstream watch.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-VuqMD2Sb5D9Nlr_fs_Bxj3d8hErzY5YDsadUMkJ5tz8FO9dNXyQGv1HWN52dDFbZ_Pn55Rhz= fyMczmEiYR87zqHR9A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035
    35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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