1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0620

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 19:34:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301932=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-302030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0620
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 301932Z - 302030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing large
    hail and strong gusts are possible through the afternoon into early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing this afternoon beneath the
    upper trough from eastern NM. Storms should continue to develop and
    shift east across the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains
    vicinity into early evening. Cold temperatures aloft are supporting
    a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. Despite modest boundary
    layer moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s F), the steep lapse
    rates are supporting weak instability up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
    Increasing winds with height are resulting in elongated/straight
    hodographs. This activity is occurring on the edge of stronger
    effective shear, but at least transient organized, strong cells are
    expected. Isolated large hail may accompany this activity.
    Additionally, strong heating and steepened low-level lapse rates
    could support sporadic gusty winds. While a watch is not currently
    anticipated, trends will be monitored for an increasing hail risk
    over the next couple hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fqKAsnhPAd8OMWFGjDkrAvJ0dTohmb_kYiEU1ZRnKj63XQqm5ibm4h0SvNP49_HCzAMYuDD4= tw9znaHvXWyU3evDCQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35070201 35020106 34730031 34230004 33880006 33280015
    32920047 32800135 32780165 32880259 33090320 33670355
    34350338 34710317 35070201=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)