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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0618

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 16:22:16 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301622
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301621=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-301745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0618
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northeast OK into northwest AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

    Valid 301621Z - 301745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of storms will move east/northeast into portions of
    northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next few hours.
    Sporadic strong to severe gusts may accompany this activity. Trends
    are being monitored for possible watch issuance or extension of WW
    197.

    DISCUSSION...A mature MCS is currently shifting east across eastern
    OK and north TX late this morning. Individual bowing segments within
    the broader line of storms may lift more northeast with time into
    portions of northeast OK and northwest AR through early afternoon.
    Filtered heating is occurring across northern AR where thinner cloud
    cover is noted. Generally low 60s F dewpoints are supporting modest instability, and further destabilization will likely remain limited
    given somewhat poor lapse rates with northward extent. Nevertheless,
    organized convection moving into this environment will continue to
    pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts, though a brief spin-up also
    could occur with any line-embedded mesovortex that develops. Tornado
    Watch 197 may be extended northward, or a new watch could be issued
    depending on convective trends.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8LnhLWT0MpAe2eqAnjbA_pmAlMQrOesw3lltR6yBELabH_Hg6vE51LYuV8H5yHD5wqgY_Oh_c= kOnaAUdKMspKhjMGaQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35589576 36169533 36209525 36479462 36489365 36489282
    36399254 35829245 35309256 35219275 35199302 35219430
    35289530 35309566 35399576 35589576=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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