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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0613

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 02:10:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300209=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-300345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0613
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central
    Texas along the Red River

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

    Valid 300209Z - 300345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of embedded tornadoes and severe wind gusts
    continues across Tornado Watch 194.

    DISCUSSION...An MCS with embedded supercell structures has evolved
    over parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas, which
    is tracking east-northeastward at 40-50 kt. This activity is
    tracking along an east/west-oriented stationary boundary, with
    middle/upper 60s dewpoints along/south of the boundary. The rich
    boundary-layer moisture, focused convergence along the boundary, and strengthening low-level jet will continue to favor the maintenance
    of this MCS with eastward extent. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
    oriented perpendicular to the gust front (sampled by VWP) and
    enhanced SRH along/north of the boundary will support embedded
    supercell structures and mesovorticies capable of producing severe
    wind gusts and tornadoes. Along the southern flank of the MCS,
    semi-discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail and a couple
    tornadoes as well.

    ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uVFh0wi4bjaYuj_zPW_pZwAYSYAcLL7HQfLE97B_6W2sc6jAGvb2sAh3F3mwiPG08zm-Ge-n= _c0rWrEECoB_FrLFYs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33879848 34579840 34819811 34899760 34859683 34639664
    34089658 33259696 33009742 32879815 32869899 32989923
    33279919 33879848=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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