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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0612

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 01:43:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300143
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300142=20
    TXZ000-300345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0612
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0842 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190...

    Valid 300142Z - 300345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk has become increasingly isolated across
    the Texas South Plains in WW190. However, severe potential should
    once again increase into the overnight hours (03-06Z time frame).

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier severe storms across the TX
    South Plains, the severe risk has become increasingly isolated --
    with a couple small/discrete storms capable of producing severe hail
    in the near-term. As a result, current thinking is that WW190 will
    be allowed to expire across this region at 02Z. However, as a 40-50
    kt low-level jet develops and impinges on a stationary boundary
    draped across the area tonight, another round of thunderstorms is
    expected in the 03-06Z time frame. Steep deep-layer lapse rates
    (sampled by the MAF 00Z sounding) and 50-60 kt of effective shear
    will support clusters of severe storms (some potentially elevated)
    capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Convective and
    environmental trends will be monitored for the need for an
    additional watch.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_T_Id5IFUR7IYxnKFfEEnw3_S35Z1PfROPnKGo9T6Y7vXnlnURPdkMkEL5eSXyXX0a_sv-CaW= 2ooPtKCK5XO2qgaVzA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31960237 32660215 33620168 34070123 34210072 34090015
    33710000 32620010 31440049 31120076 31040121 31130192
    31370229 31960237=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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