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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 23:03:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292255=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-300030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0610
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western North Texas into southwest and
    south-central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190...

    Valid 292255Z - 300030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 will likely be
    upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the hour.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of right-moving supercells is tracking east-northeastward along a stationary boundary draped across western
    North TX -- with a history of producing very large hail up to 5
    inches in diameter. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-northeastward along the boundary into the overnight hours,
    continuing to pose a risk of very large hail and severe wind gusts. Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens amid moist/easterly
    low-level flow (upper 60s dewpoints), low-level hodographs will
    expand with substantial clockwise curvature (effective SRH upwards
    of 300 m2/s2). While front-parallel flow casts some uncertainty on
    mode evolution and ingestion of surface-based inflow, this
    environment will support an increasing tornado risk. Therefore,
    parts of WW190 will likely be upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the
    hour.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_PhU9HydUEbA39mpXpBWcCWKchl6neyJ9QcCftLTja-A1pCyqkaRzCWYFrhlXrN0K61izKtDB= h4_FSfR1B7RloXKox0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33550068 34040021 34739903 35049794 35029721 34869686
    34409677 34009694 33739738 33289846 32939963 32910028
    33050076 33550068=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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