ACUS11 KWNS 291810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291810=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-292015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas affected...Permian Basin into Texas South Plains...western
North Texas...parts of southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 291810Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development appears likely in the next 2-3
hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the primary
concerns. Tornadoes will be possible particularly in western North
Texas. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern exists across the southern
Plains this afternoon. A synoptic cold front has pushed through much
of the High Plains and extends northeastward through
southwest/central Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is also evident near
the Red River in Oklahoma from an earlier complex of thunderstorms.
Dewpoints of mid/upper 60s F have reach into western North Texas
near the intersection of these boundaries, with a weak moisture
gradient to the southwest until a more obvious dryline near Fort
Stockton.

Though capping still remains, cumulus towers have begun to develop
in the Rolling Plains per day cloud phase imagery. Additionally,
convection has also developed in the Davis Mountains and is moving
northeast. With continued heating, storm coverage should increase in
the next 2-3 hours along and south of the cold front/outflow
boundary. Model guidance has been rather consistent in the preferred
zone of initiation being within the Rolling Plains first. All severe
hazards would be possible given the expected supercellular storm
mode. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the most likely
hazards. The tornado threat is less certain. With the cold front
continuing to shift slowly southward, there is potential for storms
to become undercut. Low-level shear will also not be particularly
strong until the low-level jet increase several hours from now. That
being said, there is a mesoscale zone in western North Texas near
the cold front/outflow boundary intersection where easterly surface
winds and greater moisture will promote a greater tornado threat.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5UEGWO2O-3N_KkxFhq9TQ2SMxaVPQxOisPEnvXcpEz0wUheowfg0I8O7_VE1fesPZgsQqCTvm= EnonzKUUOX5-ioZ7zw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31690192 32330237 33410197 34419917 34819796 34799772
34499742 33989737 33329854 32869934 31490131 31690192=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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